Global use of biofuels is excepted to more than double from 2009 to 2015, according to a new global analysis released by Hart's Global Biofuels Center. Leading the expansion is the United States with a growth of total biofuels use of more than 35%. Brazil will also grow domestically (30%), and more than double export volume. Indonesia and Malaysia will more than double production of palm oil biodiesel, while Germany will remain the largest producer of biofuels in Europe.

Major new contributors to the growth of global biofuels between now and 2015 will include countries like Indonesia, France, China, India, Thailand, Colombia, Malaysia, Philippines and Argentina. First generation ethanol, palm oil biodiesel and rapeseed biodiesel from Europe continue to be the dominant biofuels produced. Hart argues that out of the approximately 170 next-generation biofuels projects around the world that are in some stage of development (operational, under construction or proposed), only 30% of those are actually expected to be operating during the study timeframe.

Still, cellulosic ethanol and renewable diesel have the largest potential of all biofuels, and when fully commercialized, can command both a quality and price premium in the marketplace. And not surprisingly, those technologies which have thus far added Major oil company joint venture partners seem to have the greatest opportunity for first commercial operations. Other key findings include:

• Global ethanol demand will represent 12-14% of the global gasoline pool by 2015;
• Asia-Pacific ethanol production will grow tremendously in the coming years and could represent as much as 20% of global ethanol production by 2015;
• If India's own projections were realized, it could outpace Brazil in ethanol production and exporting by 2015.

More information about Hart's Global Biofuels Outlook is available from a dedicated website.